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Ayad Allawi
Con Coughlin says that Allawi gave him the Habbush memo (aka letter) in Nov 2003, in Baghdad. see The Great WMD Conspiracy Theory Unravels *is the head of the Iraqi National Accord = habbush letter - breakdown = Now, allawi gets this letter from somewhere. he decides to give it to con coughin. an act which coughlin calls a 'leak'. a question arises... did allawi think it was fake, or real, at the time? assume he thought it was fake Lets say, for a second, he thought it was fake. he decided to pass it on to coughlin, and tell coughlin it was real, regardless. why? either he thought it was a good idea to leak it , or he didnt. now, if he didnt think it was a good idea, but he did it anyway, that means something else was causing him to do it, like pressure from some other person??? possibility 1 - he thought it was a good idea to do it *how could it possibly be a good idea? **possibility 1.x - he thought people would believe it ***seems implausible -- he was an expert at intelligence and politics, he'd have to have known people would figure out it was fake ***what goal would have been accompished for him, if people did believe it? why would allawi think it was important to link saddam, 9/11, and saddam and wmds? what end did this serve for him? **possibility 1.y - he thought people would discover it was a forgery,,, but somehow in the meantime it would accomplish some goal. ***what possible goal could it accomplish in such short time? he had to have known it wouldnt take long for people to know it was a forgery. ****was there something happening right in the end of nov, or mid dec, that would make the timing of the story important? was there some windo of opportunity, where he could use this document's publicity in an argument, before everyone knew it was fake? **possibility 1.z - he thought people would discover it was a forgery, but it didnt matter... it would accomplish some goal anyways....even after it was discovered to be fake... ***what goal? *who did he think would be influenced by the leak? OR possibility 2 - he was under pressure to do it what kind of pressure? **political pressure ***(do this or we wont compromise with you on some issue.. ) ***(do this if you want our favors in the future...) ***(do this or you are fired) ***(do this and we will give you something back) **personal pressure ***(do this or we hurt/expose/blackmail you) ***(do this or we hurt/expose/blackmail your family/friends) And, more importantly, WHO would want to pressure him to do this? And why would they do it? Were they stupid? What did they think this fake letter would accomplish? assume he thought it was real *He would have to become temporarily stupid actually think it was real. allawi actually knew saddam, helped in the old revolutions, was intimate with many IIS people, tried to overthrow saddam in the 90s. allawi is knowledgable about inteligence issues, and he is very smart and well educated to begin with. How could he have possibly thought the document was real? Considering how many others doubted its authenticity, even random people on blogs? **temporary stupidity is not unknown in times of extreme stress, like war. or *Someone he really, really, really trusted told him it was real. Trusted so much, that he would shut off his BS detectors and accepted what the person said as factual. *im wrong, and he could be experienced and smart and still have been fooled by it......????? *or, did he just not care that much? was it so uniumportant, that he didnt even analyze it, and just passed it on as an afterthought? = timing of habbush letter = coughlin says allawi gave him the letter in november. 2003. in baghdad. allawi had just begun a huge PR push in the US in october 2003.. hiring a PR firm.. and in early december he was in washington meeting with people. saddam captured dec 13ish. insurgency rising all thru summer/fall. cia station chief being replaced question: is any of this related? travels with nouri According to Iraq Spy Service Planned by U.S. To Stem Attacks by Priest and Wright, he *was in Washington the week of dec 11 2003. *was with Nouri Badran *talked about starting a spy ervice with the CIA q: is this part of his travels that were planned along with the PR firm he hired in sep/oct 2003? the reuctant leaker? coughlin publishes the article... mid december... 13ish,... he publishes multiple versions of the story, one saying allawi does not wish to be named, another saying he doesnt mind being named. see Con Coughlin question: why was allawi reluctant, at some point, to have his name released as coughlins source? and why was he , at another point, not minding if his name was released aas coughlins source? = New Yorker article = "A Man of the Shadows" by Jon Lee Anderson very interesting article... http://www.newyorker.com/archive/2005/01/24/050124fa_fact1?currentPage=5 = brinkley new york times, june 4 2004:= highly regarded "Allawi was highly regarded by those involved in Iraqi operations, Samuel R. Berger, who was national security adviser in the Clinton administration, said in an interview. Unlike Chalabi, he was someone who was trusted by the regional governments. He was less flamboyant, less promotional. " http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9403E3D91630F93AA35755C0A9629C8B63 q: so trustworthy, whyd he give this crappy letter to con coughlin? contact with iis in the 1990s/2000s? 'Iyad had contact with people the agency thought would be useful to us in the future,'' Mr. Pollack said. He seemed to have ties to respected Sunni figures that no one else had. The Hussein government was dominated by Sunni Muslims. http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9403E3D91630F93AA35755C0A9629C8B63 q: including habbush ? =Ghali Hassan 2004 article http://www.countercurrents.org/iraq-hassan190604.htm *Allawi has good relations with the CIA *but also, the State Department possibly behind '45 minute wmd' story ok first off, the 45 minute wmds *says allawi was behind 'iraq can have a wmd in 45 minutes' story **says patrick cockburn is the source for that information q: is cockburn right? how do we know? what 45 min nuke story? well cockburn's article is here: http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_qn4158/is_20040529/ai_n12789313 and it provides absolutely no evidence to back up the claim Exiled Allawi was responsible for 45-minute WMD claim "He is the person through whom the controversial claim was channelled that Iraqi weapons of mass destruction could be operational in 45 minutes." no 'sources tell me' or 'intelligence officials say'. just 'he is the person'. q: how does cockburn know that? *ghali hassan story appears to indicate that a 'new york' spokesman for llawi denies that. . . . .what spokesman? possible pr campaign in us, 2003 *says in 2003 Allawi had a 'PR campaign' in washington and london to build support. q: what evidence is there for this 'PR Campaign'?? According to report by Jim Drinkard of USA Today: "Lobbying records show that the law firm of Preston Gates Ellis & Rouvelas Meeds and the New York public relations firm of Brown Lloyd James engaged in a flurry of contacts on Allawi's behalf beginning in late October. Most were aimed at setting up meetings with influential members of Congress and their staffs, administration officials, think tanks and journalists". The money paid by a wealthy Iraqi expatriate in London. q: contacts with who? or is it whom? jim drinkard, usa today, 6-2-2004 jim drinkard, Allawi's ascent follows extensive PR campaign, 6-2-2004, usa today http://www.usatoday.com/news/world/iraq/2004-06-02-allawi-rise_x.htm *says late oct 2003, 'flurry of contacts', to set up meetings *proof is 'lobbying records' what records? "The contacts included the offices of Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist, R-Tenn.; Sen. Richard Lugar, R-Ind., chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee; House Speaker Dennis Hastert, R-Ill.; House Majority Leader Tom DeLay, R-Texas; and Rep. Henry Hyde, R-Ill., chairman of the House International Affairs Committee. Other calls went to officials at the National Security Council, Vice President Cheney's office, the Defense Department, the CIA and three influential Washington think tanks: the American Enterprise Institute, Heritage Foundation and Brookings Institution. . . . many of the meetings arranged by the law firm fell through because of scheduling problems." tpm muckracker story, spencer ackerman,... http://tpmmuckraker.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/003989.php wow.2007. what? mike holtzmann, helped allawi, http://www.blj.co.uk/default.aspx?page=26 " At Brown Lloyd James, Mike led the firm’s work on behalf of Iraqi Governing Council member Ayad Allawi, who went on to become Iraq's first post-Saddam Prime Minister. His clients have ranged from his current, broad representation of the Government of the State of Qatar to projects for The Government of the Republic of South Korea and the United Nations Independent Inquiry into the Oil-for-Food Programme, chaired by former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker. At the government’s request, Mike was seconded to the Federal Emergency Management Agency following the September 11th terrorist attacks. Reprising a role he held with FEMA during the 1993 attack on the World Trade Center, Mike served as a media liaison from Ground Zero. Mike recently served as a Consultant at the US State Department, serving as an advisor to the Director of Policy Planning Staff. Recently, Mike wrote two important commentaries on US public diplomacy in the New York Times. During the Clinton Administration, Mr. Holtzman worked in the Executive Office of the President as Special Advisor for Public Affairs to United States Trade Representative Charlene Barshefsky. He was Director of Public Affairs to the Council on Foreign Relations from 1996-1998." = fara database = the DOJ is supposed to keep a list of foreign nationals working to influence the american public. see wikipedia:Foreign Agents Registration Act. The database, however, doesnt work too well becaue it was starved of funding. http://www.publicintegrity.org/articles/entry/486/ But, its better than nothing. link to fara report for 2004 "Brown Lloyd James, Ltd. #5582 (T) 41 West 57th Street 8th Floor New York, NY 10019 37 Dr. Ayad Allawi - through Theros & Theros, LLP (t) Nature of Services: Lobbying The registrant assisted the foreign principal by arranging meetings with U.S. Government officials, media representatives and various U.S. opinion leaders to discuss security issues and the political situation in Iraq. $37,500.00 for the six month period ending April 30,2004" "Preston Gates Ellis & Rouvelas Meeds, LLP #5583 (T) 1735 New York Avenue, N.W. Suite 500 Washington, DC 20006 37 Dr. Ayad Allawi - through Theros & Theros, LLP (t) Nature of Services: Lobbying The registrant contacted U.S. Government officials, media representatives and other U.S. leaders to discuss the security and political issues in Iraq. $202,700.00 for the six month period ending April 30,200" Theros & Theros, LLP #5581 (T) 3283 Arcadia Place, N.W. Washington, DC 20015 37 Dr. Ayad Allawi (t) Nature of Services: Legal and Other Services/Lobbying The registrant provided political representation services to Dr. Ayad Allawi, a member of the Iraq Governing Council. These services included engaging government officials, members of the media, and think-tank members on Dr. Allawi's positions regarding security and other U.S. policy issues affecting Iraq. The registrant's activities also included seeking and scheduling appointments for Dr. Allawi with the aforementioned parties. The registrant, both directly and through the subcontracted firms of Brown Lloyd James and Preston Gates Ellis and Rouvelas Meeds created and distributed informational materials on Dr. Allawi's position. $360,053.00 for the six month period ending April 30,2004 q: whats theros and theros q: 6 months before april 30 2004... thats about oct 30 2003. --- theros and theros * Ambassador Patrick Nickolas Theros "General Partner Ambassador Theros joined the Foreign Service in 1963 and, prior to being appointed Ambassador to the State of Qatar in 1995, served in a variety of positions including Political Advisor to the Commander in Chief, Central Command; Deputy Chief of Mission and Political officer in Amman; Charge d'affaires and Deputy Chief of Mission in Abu Dhabi; and Economic and Commercial Counselor in Damascus. He also has served in diplomatic positions in Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, and Nicaragua as well as in the Department of State. Immediately before his appointment to Qatar Ambassador Theros served as Deputy Coordinator for Counterterrorism, responsible for the coordination of all U.S. Government counterterrorism activities outside the United States. " http://www.therosandtheros.com/bio.html * started in 2003 http://www.therosandtheros.com/ = blackwill, insugency, 2005 = "After the 2005 elections in Iraq, Blackwill wrote a laudatory op-ed in The Wall Street Journal praising Allawi's strategy for crushing the insurgency: "Mr. Allawi's message is simple: Join us in building the new Iraq and accept its benefits or, if you support the insurgency, get ready to die."" http://tpmmuckraker.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/003978.php = what did people think of him? = "Who's who in Iraq: Iyad Allawi", bbc website http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/3757923.stm 28 may 2004 "Religious leaders think he is too secular, the US-led coalition now sees him as a critic, for the anti-Saddam opposition he is an ex-Baathist, while ordinary Iraqis say he is a CIA man." q: ok.. so what is the effect of being a source for the habbush letter... *religious leaders: dont care *us led coalition: might like him more *anti-saddam opposition: might like him more *ordinary iraqis: will think he is full of s*** q: and what is the effect of the hbbush letter itself *religious leaders: dont care *us led coalition: 'see, we told you so. yay us' *anti-saddam opposition: 'see, we told you so. yay us' *ordinary iraqis: might be fooled.. but for how long? q: what other groups than these four are involved? what are their names? how do/did they feel about allawi,.... about saddam/al qaeda,,,, about the invasion? the beatles are connected ok not really, but i think its funny http://nymag.com/nymetro/arts/books/n_8019/ nymagazine-" Q&A: Peter Brown * By Christopher Bonanos * Published Nov 18, 2002 In 1962, Peter Brown's friend Brian Epstein asked him to help manage a local band. Within months, he was at the center of Beatlemania. Today he runs the P.R. firm Brown Lloyd James," = joe conason = implies allawi was somehow 'rewarded' for habbush letter by being given PM ship in 2004. http://www.salon.com/opinion/conason/2008/08/08/suskind/ question: uhmmm... where is the evidence? q: do you really think the us would 'grant' allawi the PM ship just because he did some tiny mission involving a letter... that was called out as a fake only like a week after it was released? is that all it takes? q: how much power did the us really have over choosing the PM? q: what would chalabi say about all this? = 2007 = "5 years on, we don't have an army, we don't have a police force we dont' have a judiciary system in iraq, we dont' have institutions loyal to the country, we have really nothing, and this is very heartbreaking" http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uCwC8Cpm1eM 2 minutes 20 seconds = journeyman pictures, dateline article = http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mGKcgI_XKng Talks about allawi, 'our man in baghdad' Talks about the habbush letter at 13:40 *patrick coburn talks about allegations of INA attacks in the 90s in iraq *bob baer 'there was no 96 coup' - saying allawi had almost no real allies. 'narrator - had a long record of providing forged documents and dubious information to the cia baer - the whole things just crazy you could sit allawi down and say this is crazy of course theres no evidence when there was a willing audience, this all changed i found allawi extremely credible. if you sat him down and just said this is bullshit this is not true hed say of course this is not true, and move on' quote approximate... out of time. ' = habbush letter leak as message to the cia, a nutball theory = Allawi leaked the letter to send a message to the CIA or part of the CIA or to the US government. Which part? What message? Why? i dont know. i told you, its a nutball theory. = see also = wikipedia:Ayad_Allawi